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| Ok, so maybe the title's a little over the top. But, as Mike has again rightly pointed out, the conference finals were good to me. I predicted that Anaheim would dispose of Detroit in 6, and that Ottawa would beat Buffalo, although they did it in 5 games instead of 6. (2) Anaheim vs. (4) Ottawa Ottawa in 6 Only one series left to go, Anaheim and Ottawa for the Stanley Cup. I am taking Ottawa in this one, which would bring the Cup back to Canada for the first time since Montreal won in 1993. This is only somewhat ironic, given that the one series so far that I failed to predict was my whiff in taking Pittsburgh over Ottawa in 7. Ottawa has only lost 3 games total so far, and only one of those was in regulation. Their defense is playing so well, I just don't see the Ducks overcoming that. The other factor in my decision is that even in games where Emery hasn't played well, the Senators still have either won or had the chance to win. A few weeks ago I talked about how all the favourites were winning, a stark contrast to last year. Another noteworthy change has been that goaltending hasn't parachuted a team through the playoffs like it did in previous years. Both Calgary in 2004 and Edmonton in 2006, and to a certain extent Carolina last year, had sparkling goaltending performances that allowed them to steal games they had no business being in. This year, Emery is 11th by save percentage and 5th by GAA among goalies who have played more than 5 games*, and Giguere is 3rd and 4th, respectively. Good, but not great. In the various series, Kirprusoff outplayed Hasek and lost, Miller outplayed Emery and lost, Luongo outplayed Giguere and lost, and Turco arguably outplayed Luongo and lost. There has been no Cinderella goalie. As for my player predictions, they really were all way off. Miller played great even in defeat, Emery held the fort but wasn't out of this world, Datsyuk nearly single-handedly extended Detroit's season, and Beauchemin played admirably in Pronger's absence. This time: Biggest Hero: Daniel Alfredsson, Conn Smythe Winner.
Biggest Choker: Scott Niedermayer (they think he's hurt, so maybe that disqualifies him).
Biggest X-Factor: Rob Niedermayer, who has been great. * if you reduce the qualification standard down from 5 games to greater than 17 seconds, there is one goalie who finished the postseason with a sparkling 1.000 save percentage and a showstopping 0.00 GAA who would deserve mention. He also finished with 12 minutes in penalties, compared to 14 total for every other goalie in the playoffs. Based on that, on average he received roughly 40 penalty minutes for every minute of playing time, compared to the next most penalized goalie, Marty Turco, who had 7.85 x 10^-3 penalty minutes for every minute of playing time. You can see this enigmatic netminder in Calgary, but not for at least four more games and probably only if you're attending the finale of a set of back-to-back games. He goes by the moniker "Noodles".
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| I don't like to blow my own horn ... well, sometimes I do. As Mike correctly pointed out, a clean sweep of the second round puts me at 11 for 12. I was also able to accurately predict the number of games in the western series, thanks to a defensive meltdown by San Jose in the last minute of game 4, and a Vancouver team that really did look tired and overworked against Anaheim. By the way, what is up with San Jose? In addition to this year's choke job, they totally collapsed against the Oilers after going up 2-0, and even against Calgary in '04 they got back to 2-2 before mailing it in in games 5 and 6. Briere's non-goal kept the Rangers in it for awhile, but at least Buffalo figured out how to win a few close-checking, low scoring contests in the process. One of the most interesting things to come out of the playoffs so far also largely explains why I have been able to foretell well - the favourites are winning. Only in San Jose over Nashville, the Rangers over Atlanta, and Ottawa over New Jersey has the higher seeded team won. And none of those are Golden-State-over-Dallas shocking. It is almost fair to say that there have been no real upsets so far, and that makes my job easy. Quite a change from last year, when the Oilers still had four weeks of hockey ahead of them. (1) Anaheim vs. (2) Detroit Anaheim in 6 Anaheim just wears down teams until they get frustrated and do something stupid. This time, they don't need a collapse from Hasek, they'll find a way to win on their own. (1) Buffalo vs. (4) Ottawa Ottawa in 7 Taking the upset here, although again it wouldn't be too shocking given how well Ottawa is playing, and also given that Ottawa owned Buffalo during the regular season. Gezlaf wasn't a huge factor in the Vancouver-Anaheim series. I don't think Marleau had a single point in the Detroit series, so he deserves a ribbing. Emery outduelled Brodeur and so earns a promotion, although I think that was more because Brodeur was surprisingly bad. More: Biggest Hero: Ray Emery, Ottawa Biggest Choker: Pavel Datsyuk, Detroit Biggest X-Factor: Francois Beauchemin, Anaheim Biggest Non-factor: Ryan Miller, Buffalo | | |
| Well, I went 7 for 8 in the first round, with Ottawa picking the worst possible time to break their streak of underachieving. Sadly, the one I wanted to get wrong, the Detroit Red Wings versus the Calgary Kiprusoffs, ended according to my prediction. It was an enjoyable series to watch, with both Calgary goalies putting up highlight reel material. I am undecided about what I think on Playfair. On one hand, I feel like he deserves another year to see if he can get more accustomed to the job, and on the other, I find his inability to steer his troops annoying. As much as I despise Vancouver, Alain Vigneault has the right stuff, publically calling out his vetrans and then watching them win the game for them last night. I think Vancouver/Dalls ended up being the best series to watch, with all the overtime and the 3-1 near-comeback. I think Turco and Kiprusoff were the heroes, but I don't know if they qualify in losing causes. Regrettably, Bertuzzi had a fairly good series against Calgary. Predictions: (1) Detroit vs. (5) San Jose Detroit in 6 I think this will be a very interesting series, given how easily SJ handled Nashville. But I saw too much good defense from the Wings against Calgary to go against them. SJ has a chance if they can get to Hasek, that guy is wound up tighter than a top. I'd hate to be the guy that leaves the lid off the toothpaste in his house. We need to find a way to get Langkow into a Sharks jersey and Brett Lebda him. (2) Anaheim vs. (3) Vancouver Anaheim in 5 Vancouver is tired and can't score, and Anaheim has two (potentially three) Norris trophy winners. Anaheim will shut them down. (1) Buffalo vs. (6) New York Rangers Buffalo in 5 I think whipping Atlanta actually makes New York weaker, and will be easy pickings for Buffalo. Although the fact that Buffalo let the Islanders back into the game a number of times is disconcerting for them. (2) New Jersey vs. (4) Ottawa Ottawa in 7 Again, the Ottawa series is tough to call. I think not having home ice will hurt them, but their offense will be good enough to get them through. But this is the closest series to call, in my opinion. Biggest Hero: Ryan Gezlaf, Anaheim Biggest Choker: Patrick Marleau, San Jose Biggest X-Factor: Ray Emery, Ottawa Biggest Non-factor: Kristian Huselius (there are, in fact, two ends of the ice, Kristian) | | |
| I can’t believe I get the bronze medal in the race to post playoff picks. I also can’t believe I consistently place third or fourth in MarioKart. Perhaps these personal delusions are related. Anyways, this guy and this guy beat even TSN to the punch. In my defense, I had to wait until I at least got home from work to post these. In order to convince you that my picks have more added value, I’ve appended some biting commentary and acerbic wit, although that trails off in the Eastern Conference picks, because I know less about those teams. (1) Detroit vs. (8) Calgary Detroit in 6 To make this difficult prediction, I spent a lot of time thinking about a man’s groin. Dominik Hasek’s glass groin, to be specific. Much to the chagrin of choke-happy Ottawa, Hasek played the whole season, and played it well. But he did it by not playing back to back games and taking lots of rest. In the playoffs, he won’t have that luxury. If he stays healthy, Detroit has the assets to beat the inconsistent Flames. If something should happen to him shortly after Eric Goddard* takes his only career playoff shift, well, that could turn things around. (2) Anaheim vs. (7) Minnesota Anaheim in 6 Both of these teams annoy me. Anaheim mostly because of last year, and Minnesota mostly because of Jesse Ventura. Even though Anaheim faded in the second half, I still think they set up well as a playoff team. I like the match-up of Niedermayer and Pronger on Gaborik and Demitra, if Anaheim can shut those two down it will be a short series. (3) Vancouver vs. (6) Dallas Vancouver in 6 Vancouver has the best goalie in the West, and I think that could take them to the conference finals at least (Roloson et al., 2006 and Kiprusoff et al., 2005). Dallas has no offense, and a goalie who can’t stop pucks in the playoffs because he has both hands firmly clenched around his own neck. (4) Nashville vs. (5) San Jose San Jose in 6 This series was a yawner last year, but this year it features perhaps the two best teams on paper in the West. Both of these teams feature the goalie-go-round, and will probably both start the guy who least deserves it. I pick San Jose because I hate Nashville more. But Flames have only Nashville to thank after they stopped playing four games early than every other team (except Montreal, I suppose). (1) Buffalo vs. (8) New York Islanders Buffalo in 5 Buffalo can score goals whenever they want. New York can’t. Although if the Yoda helmet truly has magical powers, I’ll eat my words. Thanks to Getty Images for this one, I promise not to profit from its usage. 
(2) New Jersey vs. (7) Tampa Bay New Jersey in 6 New Jersey has a goalie. Tampa Bay doesn’t. Although New Jersey had a coach until a week ago, and I like Tortorella in TB. But Brodeur wins this series. (3) Atlanta vs. (6) New York Rangers Rangers in 5 I don’t really think Atlanta deserves to be in the playoffs. But I don’t really think the Rangers do either. I’d like to see them both tossed, and let Colorado play Toronto to see who gets into the second round of the playoffs. In that case: (9) Colorado vs. (9) Toronto Colorado in 5 Toronto has the fire power to compete with Colorado in this one, but Raycroft is an awful goalie and he couldn’t stop an odd man rush with three red shells circling his kart. Colorado will win and move on to play the Toronto Blue Jays in the "Tough Division? Sorry About Your Luck" Classic. (4) Ottawa vs. (5) Pittsburgh Pittsburgh in 7 The 4/5 series are perhaps the most interesting in both conferences. This one could go either way. Counter to my goalie-take-all theme, I’ll take Pittsburgh, due to the players Pittsburgh picked up at the deadline (Laraque and Roberts) who will really help make this series interesting. Other Predictions: Best Series: Pittsburgh/Ottawa Worst Series: Atlanta/New York Biggest Hero: Andrew Ference, Boston Biggest Choker: Tomas Vokoun, Nashville Biggest X-Factor: Brad Richards, Tampa Bay Biggest Non-Factor: Todd Bertuzzi, Detroit *this is merely speculation, I do not condone the deliberate injury of other players. Except maybe Sean Avery. | | |
| The Calgary Flames made a bold move on Saturday night, acquiring underperforming Brad Stuart and fourth-liner Wayne Primeau from Boston in exchange for all-around-great-guy Andrew Ference and underperforming and fourth-liner Chuck Kobasew. Sunday, the Flames were humbled 7-4 by Detroit, while also managing to allow 50 shots against. Stuart and Primeau are unrestricted free agents at season's end, while Ference and Kobasew will be in Boston for a few more seasons after that. To allay any concerns that there might be nothing left after the year, Flames fans can warm their hands up to a fourth round draft pick. Andrew Ference, known as "The Franchise" to many of us, will be missed. Ference has grown steadily in reputation since being acquired for a conditional draft pick in 2003. He was asked to play for the Canadian national team following Calgary's playoff exit in 2006. He wears his heart on his jersey and is an excellent spokesperson for the game. His only flaw is the occasional inexplicable icing. Sutter is clearly gunning for the cup this year, willing to jettison heart and courage for Stuart and Primeau. Hopefully these two can find a way to gel with the Flames' existing systems before the playoffs start in two months. Andrew Ference is likely to join other ex-Flames around the league who have prospered since leaving town - Martin St Louis, Jean-Sebastian Giguere, Toni Lydman, Marc Savard, Michael Nylander, Chris Drury, Brett Hull, Doug Gilmour, and Theoren Fleury. Ok, maybe not Theoren Fleury. Just to add some emotion to the issue (because adding emotion and sympathy are the two best ways to reach clear and logical conclusions), here is an article showing how coldly the Flames treated one of their finest sons. Thank goodness for also-exiled Flame Toni Lydman for showing some class. Now, my extreme Ference bias means that the Flames could have received Chara and Savard in exchange, and I still would have blasted the deal. My point here is to lament the passing of Andrew Ference. Not because he was a bad passer. Boy, can he pass the puck. What I'm saying is, hopefully Ference can establish himself as a top four defenseman in Boston, win the Norris, and capture the Conn Smythe after the Flames beat the Bruins in 7 games in 2008. Here's to you, Andrew Ference.
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